After Brexit the Special Relationship is next to go

Photo: Andres Putting, Delfi

Britain decided to leave the European Union so that the British would no longer have to pay for building Polish roads and would no longer have to accept Poles in UK. When will a time come when they will decide that they no longer want to pay to protect Poland from Russia?

It has no impact on NATO, everybody repeated after the British referendum on EU membership. In the short run it may be true but in the long run I'm afraid that the Special Relationship (SP) with US will go and UK will cease to play an oversized role in NATO.

UK has been moving the same direction as other Western European countries, like Netherlands, that have been cutting their defense spending. US spends 3,6% of its GDP on defense, but it gets in return the mightiest military in the world. This gives US a lot of clout in the world and gives Americans that feeling of a special nation that they desire. Netherlands, on the other hand, spends 1,16% of GDP on defense. This gives them only a token military, but they don't need more because they live in a very quiet neighborhood. If they would choose to spend 3,6% on military like the Americans it would be just as exhausting for the economy but Netherlands would never get anything near the influence that spending gives the Americans. So why bother with military?

UK was spending around 2% of GDP on military in 2015 but this percentage has been declining for years. It's not just about saving money but also about changing mentality. 

After losing the empire UK started searching for a global role and found it in Special Relationship. It gave London more clout and this special feeling of being important. UK was a major power in Europe during the cold war and remained important in former colonies in Africa. 

Yet over time things changed. End of the Cold War left the feeling that security issues have been mostly solved. Tony Blair's attempt to strengthen the SP by going to war in Iraq next to Americans left a bitter taste. Brits were getting the feeling that defense spending doesn't really justify itself. This was no longer about the anti-war left because the Tory government of David Cameron also ruthlessly cut defense spending. 

A clear mentality change has been taking place. British elite has difficulty understanding what military is for because they no longer think like a great power, but as a great trading nation. For instance, there was a surprising discussion about whether Britain should renew its nuclear deterrent because it was deemed too expensive. They discussed it with all seriousness in a world where several potentially hostile nations want nuclear weapons and several others already have them. UK is building two big aircraft carriers but there is some confusion whether they will actually have any aircraft on them. Budget cuts were so bad that US president Barack Obama had to threaten Cameron that he calls SP finished when UK cuts defense spending below 2% of GDP. We have several signs that the British people and also the British elite no longer consider defense important and don't understand why would they need to pay for it. 

So imagine now that post-Brexit UK has slow growth and a growing budget deficit, yet they still need to keep defense spending at 2% or the Americans will get angry at them. When will a time come when the British will decide that SP just isn't so important to them and that they would rather work harder on those trade agreements with India and China? If this moment comes it will be because of social development in the UK that has been taking place over the years. British euroscepticism also built up over the years, yet most people didn't believe that a decision to leave the EU was really possible. 

The end of the Special Relationship would probably be triggered by an external crisis where US would ask British help but the British would think about it and decide that they actually don't want to get involved. This almost happened in 2013 when the British parliament didn't want to attack Syria. If it happens again the fallout might be much bigger. Once the SP is finished one can expect British defense spending to fall rapidly and then it's all finished and Britain has again become trading nation on a small island.